We have been giving a lot of attention to RFK Jr recently, with good reason. He is poised to be put in charge of the federal institutions that regulate health and medicine. This is beyond problematic, as he has a long list of antiscience opinions. Part of the problem is that he lacks topic expertise (he is not a health care professional or scientist of any kind) but he does not seem to realize it. He is an activist with just enough information to feel confident about his pseudoscience and conspiracy theories.
It is also frustrating to watch many in the media try to sanewash his opinions, and don’t seem to appreciate the underlying problem. Such reports often takes the form of – well, he may be nutty, but he has a point regarding this issue. But actually he doesn’t have a point – being sort-of right from a certain angle but for an entirely wrong reason is simply not good enough when it comes to the health of our country. Process matters. If a researcher carried out a horrible study with flawed methodology throughout, but happened to come up with an answer somewhat in line with reality, the outcome would not matter. Science is about process.
RFK Jr has a flawed process, and all of his conclusions are tainted by these flaws. He does not seem to understand how science works, the nature of risk-vs-benefit in medicine, nor the difference between hazard and risk. He also tends to look at all health issues through the same ideological lens – it’s always about toxins in the environment, toxins in our food, and toxins in our medicines. Because actual experts don’t agree with his nonsense, he then concludes that they are the problem (not him) and therefore they are part of a dark conspiracy.
As an example, let’s take his evidence-free response to a complex question – what is driving the obesity epidemic in the US. There is no one answer, but we do have a lot of pieces to the puzzle. It’s pretty clear that the primary issue is that Americans (and increasingly other developed nations) consume too many calories. This is more about increased caloric intake and less about sedentary lifestyle.
The deeper question then is – why are we consuming more calories? Again, human behavior is complex and multifactorial, and it is always hard to pin it down to one factor. But it is true that fast food contains more and more calories than it did in the past. When we order a meal and consume it we are putting far more calories into our bodies than in the past. This is true generally of the food we eat – they are more calorie-dense and proportions have increased. The marketing feedback loop in the food industry is driving more and more tasty food, and what tastes good is fat, salt, and sweet – i.e.,. calories. Decreased physical activity may be playing a minor role but is not the main driver.
There is a lot more nuance to this topic, but that is the quick answer. When RFK Jr was asked this question during an interview, he gave a very different answer. He said the obesity epidemic is cause by “poisoned food” (because it’s always about toxins and poison, right?). He then goes further to say that GMOs are the problem – GMOs are “nutrient barren” while non-GMO produce used to be nutrient rich.
This is simply not true. If you make the wrong diagnosis it’s very unlikely that you will prescribe the correct treatment. GMO crops are not less nutritious than non-GMO crops. They are not “nutrient barren”. But RFK Jr likes his boogeymen. This is a question that has been studied and answered – GMO varieties are not less nutritious than their non-GMO counterparts. Genetic modification is a set of processes, it is not one outcome. Generally in order to get on the market you have to prove that a GMO variety is substantially equivalent to the non-GMO variety. In fact, the only time there would be a substantial nutritional difference is if the genetic modification enhanced the nutritional content of the crop (as with golden rice).
RFK Jr also warns about pesticides from GMOs – but GMOs do not increase pesticide use overall. Some GMOs reduce it. But again, it is incoherent to say that “GMOs” do anything – it depends on the specific modification and the specific crop. He then goes on, without any evidence, to blame glyphosate use on wheat for the rise in celiac disease, which itself is a complex diagnostic question.
RFK Jr’s process is fatally flawed, and his conclusions are nonsensical and incoherent. Sure, if you squint you may see bits and pieces that are related to the actual answer, but even then he gets the diagnosis wrong. The problem is not with processed food (or ultraprocessed food, whatever that is) – it’s partly with the caloric density of these foods. But he wants to boil down these complex public health problems to identifiable villains – toxins and poisons that can be banned.
Banning GMOs would be an absolute disaster for agriculture and for the environment. And that will do absolutely nothing to improve the health of Americans. Banning glyphosate will also hurt agriculture and if anything would cause a shift to worse pesticides.
What should we do – that is a complex question. Reversing some of the dietary trends would be a good idea, but it is really hard to change public behavior. We tried listing calories and ingredients, but that has a minimal effect. Banning individual ingredients will likely not help, and the industry can simply shift to other ingredients with the same effect. The goal is to reduce the overall caloric content of processed food, and that would require some thoughtful and evidence-based regulation – but these are things we are unlikely to get from RFK Jr.
RFK Jr On Obesity